Expectation vs Reality: Sherlock, Hannibal and 7 (5) more surprise TV hits

Some television shows feel like they're going to be smash hits before anyone's seen a frame of footage; usually because of the writers working on it, the network's reputation with its genre, or the popularity of the actors involved.

Other programmes even feel like they're simply too big to fail; such as HBO's Game of Thrones and AMC's The Walking Dead, which also benefit from having rich source material to mine and a ready-made, evangelical audience.

But what about the TV shows that felt like bad ideas before they'd aired - or even during their debut season - yet managed to overcome widespread uncertainties and grow into well-regarded programmes it's hard to imagine we were ever unsure about?

Let's take a look at some recent examples of popular TV shows that didn't initially feel like they'd work, but proved the doubters wrong...



Expectation: A modernization of a literary character most people associate with a stuffy 1980's ITV drama? Starring Tim-from-The Office as Dr Watson and that odd-looking fellow you vaguely recall from Atonement as the legendary Sherlock Holmes? And they scrapped the entire first episode after filming, started from scratch, and the BBC opted to premiere the first series in late summer with muted fanfare? That bodes well...

Reality: The show was adapted by lifelong Sherlock super-fans Steven Moffat and Mark Gatiss, was perfectly cast, and featured enjoyably manic plots full of sharp twists and dollops of tongue-in-cheek English humour. There are now whole Tumblrs dedicated to the central bromance, "Cumberbitches" is a weird term of endearment, and the show's success inspired America to do the same thing and make Elementary. The only downside is that it's made Martin Freeman and Benedict Cumberbatch so famous they're difficult to pin down to make more episodes...



Expectation: A superhero drama from the youth-skewing network that drove Superman prequel Smallville into the ground, based on a Robin Hood-alike hero mainstream audiences don't care about (but is essentially Batman with a bow and arrow). And the lead's played by a living Ken doll whose biggest film credit was a direct-to-video Screamers sequel?

Reality: A brilliantly-paced slice of action-adventure with an impressive ensemble cast who bounce off each other superbly, containing the best fight choreography the small screen has to offer. The frantic pace and general avoidance of genre pitfalls has resulted in Arrow delivering an abundance of surprises to please both casual viewers and DC comic book nerds alike.



Expectation: A CBS legal procedural starring Julianna Margulies (deep into her post-ER wilderness years) as a cheated-on wife and mother returning to practice law, co-starring Sex and the City's "Mr Big" as her adulterous senator husband? And nobody could think of a better title than The Good Wife?

Reality: Stupid and misleading title aside, this is one of the best legal dramas ever made; featuring career-best performances from composed Margulies as careerist Alicia Florrick, and Alan Cumming as gifted spin doctor Eli Gold.

A benchmark for how modern US television can successfully merge cable-beloved serialisation with the episodic traditions of mainstream networks, it also books consistently excellent guest star actors (Gary Cole, Nathan Lane, Jason O'Mara, America Ferrera, Michael J Fox, etc) who've done some of their best work here. There's even rumours of a spin-off for Carrie Preston's quirky but deceptively shrewd lawyer Elisabeth Tascioni.



Expectation: You're going to base an entire television series on an Academy Award-winning Coen Brothers movie from 18 years ago (which has long since vanished from popular conversation), starring Martin Freeman with a "Minnesota nice" accent, Billy Bob Thornton with a horrendous haircut, and the son of Tom Hanks who resembles his father's Toy Story figure?

Reality: Cleverly only taking inspiration from the barren look and feel of the chilling 1996 film, FX's Fargo almost immediately separated itself from the shadow of its forbearer. Freeman crafted a compelling anti-hero walking a decidedly Breaking Bad-like path, Thornton was thrillingly sinister as an elusive out-of-town assassin, and there was a career-launching performance from newcomer Allison Tolman as an appealing local police officer poised to crack the case.


Expectation: A prelude to a long-running franchise that once enjoyed an extraordinary Oscar-sweeping high when Silence of the Lambs won five Academy Awards in 1991, but killed itself by unleashing a poor sequel (2001's Hannibal), a weak remake of the earlier Manhunter(2002's Red Dragon), and an embarrassing film prequel (2007's Hannibal Rising)? And you also want to recast a character everyone associates with a lip-sucking Sir Anthony Hopkins?

Reality: Against all the odds for network US TV, this is easily the darkest and most disturbing drama around, filled with stomach-churning gore and violence that puts The Walking Dead to shame.

But it's not just a beacon of depravity, because there are riveting performances from Mads Mikkelsen (putting Hopkins in the shade) and Hugh Dancy as tortured FBI profiler Will Graham. It's so harrowing and twisted that it will only ever appeal to a niche audience, but that makes it all the more appealing. It's one of TV's best-kept secrets.

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What was the show that surprised you the most?